Multi-Step-Ahead prediction intervals for nonparametric autoregressions via Bootstrap: consistency, debiasing, and pertinence

We consider a forward bootstrap approach with non-parametric model estimator to resolve the difficulty on predicting multi-step ahead time series data. We construct a quantile prediction interval that is asymptotically valid. Moreover, after taking a debiasing technique, we can build pertinent prediction intervals in which the estimation variability is captured. (This is my first paper with my advisor Professor Politis. Thanks for his guidance!)

August 2023 · Dimitris Politis, Kejin Wu